Offutt AFB, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

950
FXUS63 KOAX 021047
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
547 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Abnormally warm temperatures, with readings in the mid 80s to
  lower 90s, will be common across the forecast area today.

- A chance of severe weather this evening brings a chance for
  all severe weather threats including flash flooding.

- Cooler weather settles in Tuesday as rain showers continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Upper 60s and a few lower 70 degree temperatures remain across
the area early this AM, leaving this morning the warmest in
over two weeks. A cut-off low continues to spin over the Baja
peninsula associated with the remnants of TS Alvin. Alvin`s
remaining low pressure is working in concert with the surface
high over the Southeast and is driving anomalous moisture up
through west Texas. NAEFS indicates this moisture transport is
in the 99th percentile for early June.

Stars are visible over the Nebraska with less smoke overhead
than has been the case over the past couple of days. Iowa, on
the other side of a stationary front and in a different airmass,
is still dealing with the haze. High clouds approach from the
west, associated with a shortwave over the Black Hills.
That shortwave has developed along a strong cold front bullying
through the Dakotas. Partly cloudy skies today won`t be enough
to stop the odd thermometer from hitting 90F today: the hottest
day of the week and one of the hottest of the season so far.

.SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...

By this evening, that front should be pushing into this CWA`s
far northwestern corner just as convective temps are reached and
low-level lapse rates peak (2pm?). Expect initial storm mode to
be supercellular with a threat of tornadoes or hail along with
the standard wind threat, but should grow upscale quickly and
quickly reduce the threat of funnels and hail.

The line of storms will have an east to west alignment along
the front at first, but as the H5 cutoff low ejects across New
Mexico and Kansas, it should help reorient our convective line
at about midnight or shortly thereafter. There may be some
reinvigoration on the southern edge (southeast Nebraska) around
this time as a 50 knot LLJ develops ahead of the approaching
front.

Confidence is also growing in a wind threat in what`s becoming
a familiar scenario. The HRRR once again conveys the threat of
damaging wind gusts well behind the front and really behind
radar returns from downbursts from evaporative cooling. This
signal has been showing up in model guidance for over 24 hours,
but its location has shifted (north to south). I am not
confident in its placement, but I am confident in its occurrence
late tonight. Good luck to the warning meteorologists tasked
with eking out lead time.

Also on our radar (!) will be the likelihood of heavy rainfall
concerns. Anomalous PWAT values of 1.75"+ are in the 99th
percentile (NAEFS) with the Pacific moisture streaming in as
mentioned above. With some backbuilding expected and rain rates
of over 1" an hour possible at times (50% DESI), expect a threat
of flash flooding.

One more thing: The Canadian air-mass will bring a reinforcing
shot of wildfire smoke to western Iowa.

.TUESDAY...

Lighter precipitation continues on Tuesday as the convective
threat slips southeast. Likely POPs continue into the afternoon
before ending in the evening as the system continues east and
storm drains work on backlogs. High temps will be set early in
the day with the day spend primarily in the 60s. When all said
and done, 1.0" of rain or more seems likely for most (60-90%
DESI).

.THE REST OF THE WEEK...

Wednesday will be dry with slower winds and highs in the 70s.
Sounds nice. The remainder of the forecast will be characterized
by increasing temps and regular opportunities for scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The flow becomes zonal but less
organized and harder to nail down. Models are starting to zero
in on a shortwave passing over the KC metro late Thursday /
early Friday and producing at least a threat of scattered
showers and thunder here. By the weekend, highs should be closer
to seasonal norms - leveling off near 80F each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Southerly winds will be ramping up in speed throughout the day
today before a strong cold front bullies in from the north this
afternoon and evening, turning winds sharply *to* the south.

Along that front, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
move slowly north to south, before making a quick turn east
after dark. Ceilings will fall with the thunderstorms and rain,
pushing into MVFR categories at all three sites and perhaps IFR
category (FL007) at KOFK by 08Z Tuesday morning. Visibility is
expected to slip to as low as 4 miles with some of the heavier
rain. If some of the Canadian wildfire smoke ends up thicker
than anticipated, perhaps that visibility will slip a bit lower
than forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen